Part 3 - What are the Odds of Trading Success?

Pretty bleak by the look of it...

I recently created a thread at a trading forum dealing with the question of where the much-quoted trading failure/success rates originated and where the supporting evidence might be located. You can read the discussion here:

98% of Traders Fail? Says Who...?

From the discussion and my own research, I think I can safely conclude that:

1. Any statement similar to "XX% of traders fail" is generally unsubstantiated bulls**t and can be safely ignored.

2. The few studies that *do* exist are typically small and quite specific in their samples and methods. They should *not* be used to interpolate or infer any general statistics about the success rates of traders.

3. If you are looking for a way to predict your chances of success by means of some official statistic, you will not find it. No study can possibly give you that information, because it would have to be specifically tailored to a large enough group of people in exactly the same (or at least very similar) circumstances as you - an obviously nearly impossible undertaking.

Happy Trading!
BullsEye
~ Tossing the Three Sided Coin ~